Is Amazon’s The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power Season 2 Vastly Underperforming?

Amazon’s The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power Season 2 appears to be performing significantly worse than its predecessor, based on early viewership data. Though, if you were to pay attention to the show’s fans, you would think that wouldn’t be the case. But as both Samba TV and Luminate have posted their analytics, we are starting to get a clearer picture about the state of the show. Enough to start asking whether or not Amazon’s The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power Season 2 is not only underperforming, but is performing even worse than Season 1. 

Recently Samba TV, which pulls its analytics from 48 million devices, reported that the first episode of Season 2 was watched by 902,000 U.S. households over a five-day period, which is a 50% decline from the 1.8 million viewers who tuned in for the Season 1 premiere over a four-day period. For Season 02, that equates to about 180,400 viewers per day compared to Season 1’s average of 450,000 per day. However, if we were to equal out the days for the shows then Season 2’s number drops even more to 721,600 viewers in the same time span. 

Luminate, on the other hand, provided watch time statistics and no viewership numbers, that paint a similar picture for Season 2. According to the company, The Rings of Power Season 2’s three-episode premiere garnered 764.7 million minutes watched during its opening week compared to Season 1’s two-episode premiere of 1.2 billion minutes within four days. However, if we were to pretend that all of these minutes equated to people actually watching the entire premiere it would result in around 3,748,529 viewers for season 2 (204 minutes combined runtime) and 9,090,909 viewers for Season 1 (132 minutes combined runtime).

Obviously, these numbers are nowhere near correct since we are not accounting for the people who didn’t finish watching the premiere. Of course, we have to remember that, according to Amazon, 25 million global viewers watched episode one within the first 24 hours  Which means that the number will most likely be be far less for Season 2 both domestically and globally. 

For those who have kept up with what little there has been revealed about Season 1’s viewership numbers and watch time, 37% retention rate domestically and 50% globally, it was easy to surmise that Rings of Power was a flop for Amazon. Though, keep in mind, that the Season 2 numbers posted by Luminate and Samba TV cover US households and not global. So given the exorbitant amount of money spent on the show, $1 billion, and how much advertising was utilized leading up to the show’s release. Of course, The Rings of Power was slated to have five seasons in total. 

However, given the initial information coming out about Season 2’s performance so far, to see it underperform is not surprising considering the factors that likely contributed to these declining numbers.  First, and foremost, the Rings of Power Season 1 faced heavy criticism from the majority of Tolkien fans over the show’s narrative choices, pacing, completely changing established characters, writing, and injection of modern-day sensibilities and ideals. Such alienation from the Tolkien fandom crippled the show’s ability to reach the broader audience as social media focused on the negative aspects of the show more than the small amount of positivity from the show’s fanbase which was drowned out. 

Secondly, the “review bombing” of the show. The media and company’s attempt to lessen the impact and obfuscate the fact that the vast majority of viewers, both Tolkien fans and the general audience, didn’t like the show and which carried over to Season 2. If that had not been the case, then Season 1 would have remained as a water-cooler topic far longer than it originally did. 

To add salt to the wound, The Rings of Power Season 1 failed to garner any real notice during the award seasons. Despite being nominated for numerous awards in categories such as visual effects, sound, production design, and Original Main Title Theme (composed by Howard Shore and not Bear McCreary), the show failed to secure wins in every category of Emmy nominations. This inability to convert what few nominations the show received into awards further cements the criticism that, while at times it can be visually impressive, the series fell short in the major areas such as narrative and character development. 

Finally, social media is another factor for the disparity between Season 1 and Season 2. This time around, there was a notable decline in social media buzz for The Rings of Power between the release of Season 1 and the premiere of Season 2. During the buildup to Season 1, the show had an enormous presence on platforms like Twitter and Reddit which was driven by anticipation, debate, and high expectations due to its connection with Tolkien’s legacy, the heavy-handed use of The Lord of the Rings brand, and Amazon’s massive investment. However, the show’s mixed reception caused that engagement to diminish over time to the point of engagements and discussions only occurring between the ardent and loyal fans of Tolkien and the fans of The Rings of Power (Faulkiens).

So why focus on rehashing Season 1 and not focus solely on Season 2? Because Season 1 set the foundation and expectations for Season 2. It is why there was very little enthusiasm for the Season 2 trailers. It is why we are seeing such a drastic decline in both viewership and watch time for Samba TV and Luminate. It is why there was hardly any real gains made on social media platforms for the show. In fact, for The Rings of Power Season 2, social media has been lukewarm compared to Season 1. 

Yet, while these early numbers are painting a bleak outlook for The Rings of Power, we still have to point out that we haven’t heard from Nielsen and, more importantly, Amazon itself. It could be that the data from these other platforms could give us a better picture of Season 2’s state. Though, in the case of Amazon, its current silence could be seen as a bad sign. Especially when, for Season 1, Amazon was quick to boast about the viewing numbers for episode one shortly after it was released.

Given the factors and circumstances, it is reasonable to surmise that the overall viewership for Season 2 will remain significantly lower than Season 1, barring a major resurgence driven by positive word of mouth or marketing efforts. The Rings of Power’s inability to live up to expectations, failure to draw in the general audience, and mixed critical reception has blotted out the sun to the point that the “darkness of the waters are vast,” to where there will be little impact of any kind that would be able to change the show’s trajectory domestically and globally. Even then, for Amazon, success lies not in the views but the subscriptions The Rings of Power generates. A number which Amazon has never disclosed or spoken about with any specificity.

That said, if the show isn’t bringing in the views, then that means the conversion rate for subscriptions would be low as well.

While it remains to be seen if the show can recover and gain momentum in later episodes, the current outlook raises concerns about its long-term viability.

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