With The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim’s theater release only a week away, December 13th, promotion for this animated film has ramped up significantly. Speculation about this film’s success has been a topic of discussion for a while and, last month, Box Office Pro released its estimate for The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim domestic box office opening which ranged from $10 million to $25 million, sparking another round of debate. However, there are reasons why The War of the Rohirrim’s domestic box office will be around the $10 million range rather than $25 million.
10 years ago, it would have been absolutely absurd to think that any Lord of the Rings-branded film could have such a poor opening when compared to the wildly successful Peter Jackson movies. Even though The Hobbit movies saw diminishing box office numbers with each installment, the profit was still insane with a cumulative box office total of $2.9 billion. Despite the monetary success, those movies failed to win the same critical acclaim as The Lord of the Rings trilogy.
That was 10 years ago and a lot can change in 10 years. For The Lord of the Rings brand, it certainly has changed.
Not for the better, but for the worse.
In our editorial about The Lord of the Rings brand being poisoned, we brought up a number of factors which have hurt the brand over the past 10 years. Ironically, it started with The Hobbit trilogy and, since then, subpar or average video games helped to erode the brand with The Lord of the Rings: Gollum being one of the worst games released. There was also the Magic: The Gathering Tales of Middle-earth collectible card game set which was the most successful product released over the past ten years, but also made Tolkien fans wary of new LOTR products over the card game’s racist depictions of characters such as Aragorn, Galadriel, and Eowyn.
But the biggest blow to the IP was Amazon’s The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power series. Despite its $1 billion budget, The Rings of Power’s poor writing, non-canonical take on Tolkien’s work, disrespect of Tolkien himself, and out-of-character portrayals of Lord of the Rings characters resulted in backlash from the majority of Tolkien fans and a growing disinterest from general audiences. The Rings of Power has been so poorly done that it even made The Hobbit movies look better in comparison.
As Amazon’s show floundered and faltered, this had an effect on The Lord of the Rings brand when it came to future products. Mostly other Lord of the Rings-branded video games such as The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria and, more recently, the selling off of the developer working on The Tales of the Shire: A Lord of the Rings Game which is still being developed. The fact that a Lord of the Rings video game was sold off before even being finished is a major indication of a brand that is no longer seen as a lucrative and guaranteed return on investment.
Yet why emphasize The Lord of the Rings brand when talking about The War of the Rohirrim?
The War of the Rohirrim has relied heavily on The Lord of the Rings brand to try and sell tickets. From the last-minute inclusion of Peter Jackson’s name to the insane amount of LOTR callbacks in the film itself to the actors and actresses associated with Peter Jackson’s movies and use of film footage at the start of most trailers for the anime film, it was all needed to try and get people to be interested in the movie.
Which hasn’t been working.
In fact, the trailers don’t get a lot of traction on YouTube and social media interactions are nothing to boast about. Even the release of an eight-minute clip from The War of the Rohirrim didn’t get much of a reception except to drive more Tolkien fans away from seeing this movie in theaters. The clip solidified a lot of speculation about the movie which appears to have sidelined the main character of the story, Helm Hammernd, for Héra who, in Tolkien’s story, was an unnamed character who had no significant role in the tale.
Héra, the new main character for this movie and the biggest red flag for The War of the Rohirrim. Why? Because she appears to be another girlboss who is competent, confident, and can do no wrong. More importantly because, as the writers said, “…it’s about her choice and having the ability to choose…”
It’s not about Helm Hammerhand himself who, through his actions, saw his kingdom brought down, his sons killed, and watching as his people starve and die off during the Long Winter. The movie trailers and featurettes doesn’t give viewers the impression that the movie focuses on him, his pain, suffering, and torment which led to Helm committing great and fell deeds with an epic-sounding ending. In fact, Warner Bros released a song tilted “The Rider” sung by Paris Paloma that will be in The War of the Rohirrim which is a nice song. But it is not a song for Helm, but Héra.
It’s about Héra and her struggles.
HER story instead of HIS story.
In fact, Helm Hammerhand’s story is one that should have been treated as an R-rated tale with the amount of violence he would commit. But, The War of the Rohirrim is an anime film rated PG-13. Which means, the impact and visuals of Helm’s actions must be toned down in order to receive the younger audience rating.
An anime film which, in and of itself, presents problems for The War of the Rohirrim. Anime is not overly well-received at the box office despite the popularity of anime and manga in the United States. The anime films which tend to do well in the box office are successful because they are part of an established franchise and released during the height of popularity.
Which is not the case for Rohirrim.
Even if that weren’t the case, Rohirrim isn’t a real anime film. It is a western approach to anime and it shows. The animation isn’t stellar and fails to compare with more recent anime such as Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba which is the second highest-grossing film with a lifetime box office gross of $49.5 million with Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Mugen Train back in 2021.
In fact, for The War of the Rohirrim to hit the Top 10 highest-grossing anime films, it would only have to make $17 million during its box office run.
Which is not a high bar to hit and is definitely not the goal for Warner Bros which is most likely hoping for a much higher number.
Despite the lack of interest from the general audience, alienation of a large portion of the Tolkien fanbase, and it being an anime film, The War of the Rohirrim has another problem to deal with that will drive its domestic box office opening figure low: competition.
The War of the Rohirrim’s December 13th release date puts it up against Wicked and Moana 2 which have been large successes at the box office. Granted, both movies will be in their third (Moana 2) and fourth week (Wicked), but will still be able to siphon away the younger audiences which Rohirrim is hoping to attract. Then there is Sony’s Kraven the Hunter which, while not looking to be a big success at the box office, is releasing the same day as Rohirrim. On top of that is a double whammy from Mufasa: The Lion King and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which releases December 20th, a week after Rohirrim’s release. Both of which are major competitors for the younger audience and definitely will outperform Rohirrim..
But with Moana 2, Wicked, and Kraven the Hunter competing for the weekend of December 13th, this will lead to a low domestic box office performance for The War of the Rohirrim during its opening weekend. Mostly because of Moana 2 and Wicked rather than Kraven the Hunter which is rated R. Then there is Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which will greatly hamper Rohirrim’s performance given how popular the Sonic movies have been (Sonic the Hedgehog 2’s opening weekend raked in $72 million).
With that competition, The War of the Rohirrim might hit $10 million opening weekend at the box office, but will struggle to hit $15 million. Even if it somehow makes $25 million opening weekend, those numbers are not good for The Lord of the Rings brand.
However, that is the domestic box office.
I’m sure that Warner Bros, like Amazon with The Rings of Power, is relying on the global box office to bring in the money in the hopes that the vein of mithril hasn’t been completely mined. Unfortunately for Amazon, The Rings of Power season 2 saw a huge decline in global viewership which will affect The War of the Rohirrim’s global box office.
How much so? It’s hard to tell.
But The War of the Rohirrim does not look to be a big hit at the box office domestically and, possibly, globally as well. In other words, The War of the Rohirrim looks as if it will be a box office flop.
Author’s Note:
Support this site by donating via Paypal or even checking out our merchandise on RedBubble where you can find designs that cater to writers and readers. Money donated and raised goes into paying for this website and equipment.
Interested in posting this article, or another article, on your website? Check out our prices to make that happen – https://tinyurl.com/mrxa56pp
[…] [ December 6, 2024 ] The War of the Rohirrim: Why This Lord of the Rings Anime Film Will Struggl… […]