Will Assassin’s Creed Shadows be a Success or Flop for Ubisoft?

The March 20th release of Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed Shadows is upon us and the major question looms: will Assassin’s Creed Shadows be the success Ubisoft desperately needs? Or will it be the latest stumble in the company’s increasingly declining legacy? 

Assassin’s Creed Shadows has been delayed twice and has a rumored, conservatively-estimated budget of $250-350 million (potentially $400 million with marketing). But its arrival comes at a pivotal moment for Ubisoft which is grappling with declining stock prices, investor skepticism, and the fallout of recent flops like Skull & Bones, Star Wars Outlaws, and every other game it released in 2024. 

Obviously, the stakes couldn’t be higher and there is a lot of skepticism about the latest Assassin’s Creed installment. While Shadows could follow in the footsteps of other IPs that defied expectations to succeed, it could also collapse under the weight of its own ambitions,  Ubisoft’s tarnished reputation, and the plethora of controversies over the game and the company itself. 

Controversies which have been more than enough for Japanese gamers to call for the game’s cancellation and even calls for the boycott of Assassin’s Creed Shadows.

There are several major reasons why Ubisoft decided to delay AC Shadows’ release not once, but twice, that will have a major impact on its sales (the first delay cost Ubisoft $20 million). The obvious one is to polish the game and fix the bugs which were readily apparent from the moment it was revealed to the public. It is a valid reason to be wary when buying an Ubisoft game at launch, especially after 2024 highlighted this fact as consumers just weren’t buying what the developer was putting out.With that said, 2024 is another reason for why Assassin’s Creed Shadows was originally delayed to February 2025. 2024 was a disastrous year for Ubisoft and releasing Shadows so soon after Star Wars Outlaws flopped would leave consumers wary and greatly impact its sales figures. However, February provided a major hurdle for the game in the form of competition. With Monster Hunter Wilds and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 also releasing in February, there was no way that these two games wouldn’t cannibalize a large portion of sales from Ubisoft’s latest title. Which was most likely the main reason for why the game was delayed to March 20th. Giving consumers more time to memory hole some of the issues, while allowing Ubisoft to keep polishing the game, and hoping that they would continue to disconnect from the disaster of 2024.

With these delays, it’s safe to say that Ubisoft is hoping that gamers will forget about 2024 when thinking about what games to purchase in 2025. They need consumers to disconnect from 2024 with regards to the early negative reactions, whether from a technological perspective, the many controversies it has undergone, and the DEI/woke label put upon it.

That disconnect is what is important to the potential success of Assassin’s Creed Shadows.

After all, Ubisoft, more than any other video game company, knows that if the general audience can be convinced that a game looks “good enough,” then they will buy it. Ubisoft is banking on casual gamers who remain blissfully detached from the culture war raging online and don’t pay enough attention to content creators and influencers. For them, the trailers and positive spin from video game outlets will convince the casual gamer that AC Shadows looks “good enough” to purchase.

Which was not the case in 2024 with Ubisoft’s other games. Skull & Bones sank under buggy gameplay and a betrayal of expectations over its “quadruple-A” quality while Star Wars Outlaws, which failed to capitalize on its a branding that has lost its luster, the design of the female lead, and uninteresting, unpolished gameplay epitomized 2024’s problems. 

Leading up to March 20th, Assassin’s Creed Shadows appears competent for the casual gamers based on further trailers and gameplay videos released by the developer. Minus one or two technical issues such as when, on the developer’s livestream, they tried to pet a dog only for the action to not work.  

The delays, costing a reported $20 million, weren’t just about polish, they were about timing. As mentioned before, with heavyweights like Kingdom Come: Deliverance II and Monster Hunter Wilds battling it out in February, Ubisoft had to shift Shadows to a less crowded window, betting on a clear shot at the spotlight. It’s a calculated move to avoid being drowned out, but it also betrays a lack of confidence in the game’s ability to compete head-on.

However, the new March 20 release date came with its own problem that content creators were quick to point out. Specifically, in Japan, March 20 is the anniversary of the Tokyo subway sarin attack. 

With the subject of Japan, in which Assassin’s Creed Shadows is set, we get to a major hurdle for the game. 

Japan’s reception of Assassin’s Creed Shadows has been anything but warm. For good reason. Japanese fans have criticized Shadows for feeling like a Western caricature of their culture in addition to the fact that neither of the main protagonists are Japanese males. In addition, Ubisoft has demonstrated a complete lack of knowledge concerning Japanese culture which has led to politicians speaking out about the game. 

Japan is a significant market that, with this backlash, no one could expect to see the game move a large amount of copies. Sadly, those who support and promote Japan’s outrage over AC Shadows are too few compared to a large majority who are unaware or don’t care about how a video game treats the land, culture, and race it is taking from. 

Make no mistake, the Assassin’s Creed franchise is a resilient one for Ubisoft. Despite mixed reviews, Origins and Valhalla still brought in millions due to a loyal fanbase and mainstream media’s penchant of glossing over the flaws. While Ubisoft refuses to provide any specific information regarding Shadows’ preorder numbers, they have said that Assassin’s Creed Shadows’ preorders are “solid” and “in line with those of Assassin’s Creed Odyssey, the second most successful entry of the franchise”.

Odyssey sold around 10 million in less than two years since it was released. Assassin’s Creed Mirage, the last installment, never had its sales figures disclosed though it is estimated that it brought in $250 million in revenue with around 5 million players. 

Assassin’s Creed Shadows is going to move copies. The problem for Ubisoft is whether or not it can meet the company’s expectations since its position is precarious. Shadows must succeed and underperforming even slightly is going to cause seismic shifts for the company. 

Here’s the crux of the situation. For Ubisoft, Assassin’s Creed Shadows success hinges on perception and not quality. Mainstream media has been running interference for Ubisoft with its large PR machinery and will review it with kiddie gloves. For the general consumer and casual gamer, nothing would seem off to them about Shadows. However, despite mainstream media’s reach and influence, it hasn’t been effective as witnessed in 2024 with the failures of Concord, Star War Outlaws, and Dragon Age: The Veilguard. 

Veilguard, especially, was a huge wake-up call for the industry in how casual gamers were not convinced by what mainstream media told them, but what they could see with their eyes. While content creators and influencers who constantly criticized Veilguard weren’t the main reason for why the game failed, even the video game outlets’ reach and influence with the general audience couldn’t save BioWare’s latest game. 

The same audience who shrugs off scandals and DEI debates in favor of a shiny new toy or are just ignorant of them. That don’t see or know of Ubisoft’s history regarding sexual harassment, racism allegations, and government-funded DEI initiatives (which could be tied to Yasuke’s prominence) or resonate with niche gaming circles who stay informed about all of this.

These things rarely pierce the broader consciousness unless it is exceptionally egregious and, even then, will still be ignored in order for them to play the latest game so long as it looks “good enough.” 

Ubisoft knows this all too well. 

For the Assassin’s Creed developer, all it needs is for Shadows to look “good enough.” Meanwhile, mainstream game journalists are already giving it positive review scores despite common criticism over SC Shadows’ writing and gameplay.

However, despite mainstream media and perception, things could fall apart for Assassin’s Creed Shadows once gamers start to play it. Just like we saw with Dragon Age: The Veilguard in which there was a huge spike in Steam returns for the game, something similar could happen with Shadows. And, as more clips of the game’s faults, poor writing, bad voice acting, and DEI/wokeness appear on X, YouTube, and other social media platforms, it might sway a significant number of the general audience at zero hour. 

The chance that Assassin’s Creed Shadows being a flop for Ubisoft is very possible despite the strength of the Assassin’s Creed brand. Even if it succeeds, the hole Ubisoft has dug for itself, by years of mismanagement and misfires, may be too deep to climb out of. Shadows might turn out to be a win on paper, but for a company bleeding cash and credibility, “good enough” could still spell doom. In the end, it’s not logic or quality that will decide things, just the gleam of a well-spun illusion to draw in the general audience.

Unless that illusion can once again be pierced. 

By delaying Assassin’s Creed Shadows’ release, Ubisoft prevented it from being the last flop in 2024. Now it is time to see if it will be the company’s first flop in 2025.

Author’s Note:

Support this site by donating via Paypal or even checking out our merchandise on RedBubble where you can find designs that cater to writers and readers. Money donated and raised goes into paying for this website and equipment.

Check out our Non-BUYnary txt design!

Interested in posting this article, or another article, on your website? Check out our prices to make that happen – https://tinyurl.com/mrxa56pp

We just published our children’s book The Lemonade Stand Log Book for Child Entrepreneurs, so check it out and recommend it to any parents looking to get their kids interested in learning to make money and becoming fiscally responsible.