2011: A Disastrous Year For Nintendo?

(NOTE: Originally published 02/16/2011 on IGN Blogs)

Without a doubt the sales of the Nintendo DS and Wii have been monumental successes. We’ve seen Nintendo release a couple color varieties of the Wii and around five different versions of the DS of which all of them have had great sales. However, I feel that Nintendo might be in for a disastrous year here in the States.

A bold hypothesis to make, without a doubt, but bear with me. Assuming that there are no plans for a new console, Nintendo will solely rely on the upcoming 3DS. If Nintendo is somehow thinking that the Wii will continue to sell well, alongside the 3DS, then I think they are sorely mistaken.

With Wii console sales down a whopping 45% last year it would seem that the console is on its last legs (with exception to some upcoming games). Let’s face it, the Wii has had its moment to shine but now the end is here for it. With its competitors releasing their own motion-controllers, Nintendo will find its consumer base going over to the PS3 and 360 just for the better graphics and, theoretically, better 3rd party games.

Don’t get me wrong though. I love Nintendo but there are only so many Mario, Zelda, and Metroid games I can play before I get sick and bored with them. In regards to Mario I just don’t enjoy playing the games unless I am playing with some friends. Metroid: Other M was a good game, but its weakness was in the character of Samus Aran herself. Then you have Zelda which, I’m sorry to say, doesn’t have the appeal for me that it once did.

But of course, that is just me. After all, Mario is still extremely popular and makes up a huge chunk of the list of best-selling Wii games alongside Wii Fit and Wii Sports. But with Wii sales finally flagging, and no new console in sight, Nintendo will have to rely on their upcoming handheld and Wii games.

And therein, lies the problem. While I’m sure that the 3DS will sell well in Japan, I’m not so sure that it will be a huge success here in the States. As for games, I’m sure Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and the returning Donkey Kong will do well on the Wii. But Wii Sports and Wii Fit enthusiasts might just jump ship for the Kinect or Move.

However, instead of debating on whether or not people are going to jump ship from the Wii to Sony or Microsoft, I want to concentrate on the 3DS considering that this is going to be what Nintendo will focus on.

Now according to Nintendo the 3DS will have some amazing features. The handheld will allow players to play 3D games without glasses, there will be three built-in cameras that can take 3D pictures, SpotPass which will search for wifi hotspots, and other things little

tidbits will be made specifically for the 3DS. According to IGN’s 3DS page consumers will also have an internet browser…in a later patch/update.

Yet while the 3DS sounds like a nice bit of technology it is not what the majority of consumers will be wanting. If this had come out 3-4 years ago I’m sure the 3DS would have been a monumental success. Now though? It is just another drop in a market flooded with tablets and smart phones that can do so much more.

Granted the 3DS was created with its primary focus on gaming, however it just isn’t enough anymore. Not when you have tablets and smart phones that can surf the web, play music, take pictures, be an e-reader, let you play some cool games and check out hundreds of cool apps. While these tablets and smart phones can let a consumer do all those things the 3DS can let you play games, take pictures, and, maybe, browse the internet.

Yeah…not so exciting.

Then take into account that this handheld system will cost $250 and most people are going to pause and think about it. After all, why pay $250 for a device that only plays games when you can get an 8gb ipod touch for $230 (or $299 for the 32gb version)?

Don’t scoff, because there are some really great games that you can play on the ipod touch. Dead Space, for example, looks really good and, at $7, is a bargain.

Talking about Dead Space, oddly enough, brings up an interesting point: game prices. With Nintendo DS games retailing for around $30, is it safe to assume that we might see a price hike for 3DS games? Even if the 3DS games retail at $30 why would someone want to spend that much money for one game when they can buy dozens of games for a couple bucks? If I can enjoy a game, like Angry Birds, for $1 and spend just as much time playing it as a game for $30, which one should I buy?

The only people who will want to spend that kind of money on games will be the Nintendo fanboys and fangirls. Not only the Nintendo fans, though, but gamers who are nostalgic about Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D and Starfox 64 3D will want to purchase the 3DS just to play those games. Interestingly enough those two games, at this time, don’t even have a release date yet and are in the works.

Now whether we want to admit it or not the casual consumer market and young children are what made the Nintendo Wii and DS so successful. But because Nintendo hasn’t changed their strategy they have lost that same audience.

Older, casual gamers want tablets and smart phones for their versatility. Young children, according to a survey conducted last year by Nielsen, want the iPad more than anything else (31% of those polled wanted the iPad). But with new, more powerful tablets and smart phones coming out this year, more people will prefer those over a device that only plays video games.

As much as I would like a 3DS, just to play Zelda and Starfox, I can’t justify spending $250 for a device that can only play games. Not only that but given Nintendo’s record with their handheld devices I’m sure that, within six months, there will be a new and improved 3DS and hopefully, by then, the original 3DS will have gone down in price.

Whatever the case may be, all I can say is that it is a new day for mobile gaming and, sadly, the 3DS is stuck in the past. In Japan I’m sure it will sell well. But here in the States? It might just be disastrous.

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